When cyclone Alfred hit Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the North of New South Wales recently, I was watching the news coverage closely. My sister lives on the Gold Coast and, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, she was going to be in the zone predicted to be hit with the most damaging winds. She was pretty sure this was no big deal for her, and fortunately she was right.
Hi Ken. Has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your Weather Almanac comparing what the weather was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please? > > Hi Hamish, has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your doctor's opinions compared to what the health of the community was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please? My point is this: we have been writing the almanacs since 1999. They are all available in the libraries. There is no law stopping you from researching my opinions, because that's all they are. What do you hope to find? > > cheers Ken > > Thank you for your response. My doctor or any other physician, would use their 6 years at medical school and years of experience to make a diagnosis. We had a significant weather event last weekend here in Dunedin. Our weather forecasters had predicted this a few hours on and advised the city council of the impending flood. The council acted fast and had trucks running all night clearing drains and water ways. It wasn't an option, it was a fact. If a farmer was to rely on your opinion and not the professional weather forecasters, where would they be? > > If you looked at my rain map, sent out free on 1st - it showed heavy rain last week, spreading to coastal Otago. My almanac says for the 3rd, "heavy rain for lower Southland slopes". My rain map shows the only heavy rain for the country across coastal Otago. I am not to blame that councils did not take note of it. But I certainly predicted something untoward. It is up to councils to act on what the maps suggest. My opinion was correct. The dark in the picture indicates very heavy rain. > > Thank you Ken. Why do you call it an opinion rather than a forecast? I know I am splitting hairs. Rain fall for that period according to your graph indicates about 25mm of rain but in actual fact it was between 130 and 150mm. This is several magnitudes more than you predicted. In fact you are out by so much that you did not even predict a flood at all > > Amounts of rain are dependent on evaporation beforehand, there SUN. My study is with the moon, amounts will vary. No one can guess amounts. That's where opinion come in. If it rains there is potential for the house next door to receive double or half what you receive,. > > 25mm of rain is a lot. For instance, 6mm is considered a rainy day. > > Thank you for your response. Have you ever had a miss with any of your predictions and if so, can you give me an example? > > I have the same rate as the metservice. It's an inexact science. Accuracy is about 85% > > Okay so taking into account that your graph has Westland with a higher rainfall than Dunedin, and Dunedin was several magnitudes less than what actually happened, do you think you predicted the floods in Dunedin last week based on your data, or did you drop the ball on this one? > > Depends where in the district the rainfall was measured. Obviously one data-gathering station for a huge area like Westland or Dunedin is not going to be very accurate. Some places will receive huge amounts and some will get none
Jonny Grady, a long-time committee member, sent an image he'd taken of a “UFO” to the committee last week:
It's hard to believe it's the end of February already, and the official end to summer, at least on a calendar month basis. With all the rain and weather events we've had, it's hard to think that this summer has been a classic one. Still, it may well have finally made some of the more sluggish members of the population wake up to the reality of climate change. And what a reality it is, with the massive destruction that took place in Hawke's Bay and other areas. The cost of replacing infrastructure seems that it place a big burden on our economy for some time.
As I write this on Sunday morning in Auckland, we're beginning to see the start of bad weather from Cyclone Gabrielle, which is expected to cause high winds and extreme rain in the upper North Island.
Most of us will know Ken Ring both for his claim that he can predict the weather by looking at the moon, and his supposed ability to predict earthquakes. Here's Ken talking about how you can supposedly also use rainbows to predict the weather:
A week seems like a very long time at the moment! But just over a week ago, the island nation of Tonga experienced a huge volcanic eruption and resulting tsunami. The effect of the tsunami was made worse by the fact that the islands are low-lying so seeking high ground is all but impossible.
Speaking of COVID grifters, an amusing take-down has emerged from the UK.Piers Corbyn is an anti-vax activist, and elder brother of the former UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Sadly the Druids cancelled on us last week due to the bad weather here in Wellington, so I was unable to attend their winter solstice event. However we (a small group of Skeptics in the Pub regulars) have been invited to the spring equinox event instead, so expect an update in 3 months.
Ken Ring is back selling his unproven weather, gardening, and best fishing predictions. You can also get his books on the global warming hoax, anxiety therapy, better parenting, and more on his predict weather website.
In a world where for some 2021 is already giving 2020 a run for its money, I'm trying to appreciate my freedoms. That includes the freedom to relax, drink cocktails and enjoy the balmy weather, and not get stressed out about where to put cocktail flavoured suppositories to solve make-believe problems invented by the wellness industry.
Keith Muir responds to Barry Brill's article, A Climate of Hope, in NZ Skeptic 108.
Ken Ring of Titirangi is New Zealand's best known proponent of the idea that the Moon is an accurate weather forecasting tool. He publicly scoffs at official forecasters and climate scientists for ignoring the lunar effect, and the news media love him.
At the last conference I was elected editor of the New Zealand Skeptic. Some of you will have read my pieces in Metro magazine or in NBR over the years, or heard my "Soapboxes" on World Service Radio. If you have wondered about my recent absence from the media, it is because I have been preparing to launch my own magazine.