A Short Conversation with Ken Ring

Hamish Dickson - 14 October 2024

Hi Ken. Has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your Weather Almanac comparing what the weather was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please?

Hi Hamish, has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your doctor’s opinions compared to what the health of the community was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please? My point is this: we have been writing the almanacs since 1999. They are all available in the libraries. There is no law stopping you from researching my opinions, because that’s all they are. What do you hope to find?

cheers Ken

Thank you for your response. My doctor or any other physician, would use their 6 years at medical school and years of experience to make a diagnosis. We had a significant weather event last weekend here in Dunedin. Our weather forecasters had predicted this a few hours on and advised the city council of the impending flood. The council acted fast and had trucks running all night clearing drains and water ways. It wasn’t an option, it was a fact. If a farmer was to rely on your opinion and not the professional weather forecasters, where would they be?

If you looked at my rain map, sent out free on 1st - it showed heavy rain last week, spreading to coastal Otago. My almanac says for the 3rd, “heavy rain for lower Southland slopes”. My rain map shows the only heavy rain for the country across coastal Otago. I am not to blame that councils did not take note of it. But I certainly predicted something untoward. It is up to councils to act on what the maps suggest. My opinion was correct. The dark in the picture indicates very heavy rain.

Thank you Ken. Why do you call it an opinion rather than a forecast? I know I am splitting hairs. Rain fall for that period according to your graph indicates about 25mm of rain but in actual fact it was between 130 and 150mm. This is several magnitudes more than you predicted. In fact you are out by so much that you did not even predict a flood at all

Amounts of rain are dependent on evaporation beforehand, there SUN. My study is with the moon, amounts will vary. No one can guess amounts. That’s where opinion come in. If it rains there is potential for the house next door to receive double or half what you receive,.

25mm of rain is a lot. For instance, 6mm is considered a rainy day.

Thank you for your response. Have you ever had a miss with any of your predictions and if so, can you give me an example?

I have the same rate as the metservice. It’s an inexact science. Accuracy is about 85%

Okay so taking into account that your graph has Westland with a higher rainfall than Dunedin, and Dunedin was several magnitudes less than what actually happened, do you think you predicted the floods in Dunedin last week based on your data, or did you drop the ball on this one?

Depends where in the district the rainfall was measured. Obviously one data-gathering station for a huge area like Westland or Dunedin is not going to be very accurate. Some places will receive huge amounts and some will get none