Articles tagged with "amount"

In a recent Skeptics Newsletter, I was a bit miffed about what I see as a lack of scepticism around the so-called 'energy transition'. Patrick highlighted a blog projecting that global investment in renewables would soon be more than spent on fossil fuels. And then there was the link to rewiring Aotearoa. I think it's important for us to be a bit skeptical about this so-called energy transition - which isn't happening, despite all the hype. There has indeed been addition of renewable energy, but no transition because we keep using more energy (from 2021 to 2024 fossil fuel additions still outstripped renewables 2.6:1).

Hi Ken. Has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your Weather Almanac comparing what the weather was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please? > > Hi Hamish, has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your doctor's opinions compared to what the health of the community was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please? My point is this: we have been writing the almanacs since 1999. They are all available in the libraries. There is no law stopping you from researching my opinions, because that's all they are. What do you hope to find? > > cheers Ken > > Thank you for your response. My doctor or any other physician, would use their 6 years at medical school and years of experience to make a diagnosis. We had a significant weather event last weekend here in Dunedin. Our weather forecasters had predicted this a few hours on and advised the city council of the impending flood. The council acted fast and had trucks running all night clearing drains and water ways. It wasn't an option, it was a fact. If a farmer was to rely on your opinion and not the professional weather forecasters, where would they be? > > If you looked at my rain map, sent out free on 1st - it showed heavy rain last week, spreading to coastal Otago. My almanac says for the 3rd, "heavy rain for lower Southland slopes". My rain map shows the only heavy rain for the country across coastal Otago. I am not to blame that councils did not take note of it. But I certainly predicted something untoward. It is up to councils to act on what the maps suggest. My opinion was correct. The dark in the picture indicates very heavy rain. > > Thank you Ken. Why do you call it an opinion rather than a forecast? I know I am splitting hairs. Rain fall for that period according to your graph indicates about 25mm of rain but in actual fact it was between 130 and 150mm. This is several magnitudes more than you predicted. In fact you are out by so much that you did not even predict a flood at all > > Amounts of rain are dependent on evaporation beforehand, there SUN. My study is with the moon, amounts will vary. No one can guess amounts. That's where opinion come in. If it rains there is potential for the house next door to receive double or half what you receive,. > > 25mm of rain is a lot. For instance, 6mm is considered a rainy day. > > Thank you for your response. Have you ever had a miss with any of your predictions and if so, can you give me an example? > > I have the same rate as the metservice. It's an inexact science. Accuracy is about 85% > > Okay so taking into account that your graph has Westland with a higher rainfall than Dunedin, and Dunedin was several magnitudes less than what actually happened, do you think you predicted the floods in Dunedin last week based on your data, or did you drop the ball on this one? > > Depends where in the district the rainfall was measured. Obviously one data-gathering station for a huge area like Westland or Dunedin is not going to be very accurate. Some places will receive huge amounts and some will get none

A man from Nelson won $100,000 recently when his numbers came up in the lottery, and he'd purchased 12 tickets with the same numbers. Although this is touted as a lottery tactic, in the long run, on average, people using this method to play the lottery will win less than others, as any wins they have will result in a lower payout per ticket.

This is a summary of a talk given at the 1992 Skeptics conference by Dr Eric Geiringer.

This is my last newsletter. I am pleased to be handing over the editorship to Denis Dutton. I feel I have been very fortunate in the quality of contributions I have received and to have had regular contributors. A special acknowledgement is due to Mark Davies, Andrew Vignaux and Karen Tumer who physically produce the magazine. I had no idea of the amount of work they undertake until I became involved in it myself.