Articles tagged with "opinion"

Hi Ken. Has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your Weather Almanac comparing what the weather was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please? > > Hi Hamish, has anyone done a formal statistical analysis of your doctor's opinions compared to what the health of the community was like on those days predicted and if so, can you provide a link please? My point is this: we have been writing the almanacs since 1999. They are all available in the libraries. There is no law stopping you from researching my opinions, because that's all they are. What do you hope to find? > > cheers Ken > > Thank you for your response. My doctor or any other physician, would use their 6 years at medical school and years of experience to make a diagnosis. We had a significant weather event last weekend here in Dunedin. Our weather forecasters had predicted this a few hours on and advised the city council of the impending flood. The council acted fast and had trucks running all night clearing drains and water ways. It wasn't an option, it was a fact. If a farmer was to rely on your opinion and not the professional weather forecasters, where would they be? > > If you looked at my rain map, sent out free on 1st - it showed heavy rain last week, spreading to coastal Otago. My almanac says for the 3rd, "heavy rain for lower Southland slopes". My rain map shows the only heavy rain for the country across coastal Otago. I am not to blame that councils did not take note of it. But I certainly predicted something untoward. It is up to councils to act on what the maps suggest. My opinion was correct. The dark in the picture indicates very heavy rain. > > Thank you Ken. Why do you call it an opinion rather than a forecast? I know I am splitting hairs. Rain fall for that period according to your graph indicates about 25mm of rain but in actual fact it was between 130 and 150mm. This is several magnitudes more than you predicted. In fact you are out by so much that you did not even predict a flood at all > > Amounts of rain are dependent on evaporation beforehand, there SUN. My study is with the moon, amounts will vary. No one can guess amounts. That's where opinion come in. If it rains there is potential for the house next door to receive double or half what you receive,. > > 25mm of rain is a lot. For instance, 6mm is considered a rainy day. > > Thank you for your response. Have you ever had a miss with any of your predictions and if so, can you give me an example? > > I have the same rate as the metservice. It's an inexact science. Accuracy is about 85% > > Okay so taking into account that your graph has Westland with a higher rainfall than Dunedin, and Dunedin was several magnitudes less than what actually happened, do you think you predicted the floods in Dunedin last week based on your data, or did you drop the ball on this one? > > Depends where in the district the rainfall was measured. Obviously one data-gathering station for a huge area like Westland or Dunedin is not going to be very accurate. Some places will receive huge amounts and some will get none

Sticking with the COVID theme, I reported in a previous newsletter about the website set up to allow medical professionals and “concerned citizens” to sign their name to the statement:

Sue Grey, Nelson lawyer and co-leader of The Outdoors Party (an anti-vax, anti-5g, anti-1080 political party), had her day in court last week, taking the government to court over their COVID vaccine rollout. Although I was not able to spare the time to spend the day in court, I did manage to briefly visit the outside of the High Court in the morning, and when I got there Billy TK, who had decided to join the circus, was arguing outside with security guards. It turns out he had been kicked out of the court foyer for filming in a prohibited area, and of course his being removed was just proof that the system is corrupt. Go Billy!

In recent weeks there's been a bit of controversy on the airwaves in the form of talkback radio. Talkback radio's an interesting format - where else (apart from letters to the editor) do you get to voice your opinion on any matter to such a big audience? A few weeks ago we saw the removal of John Banks from the Magic Talk radio network after his abhorrent racist remarks (and not shutting down those of a caller).

Last week (December 10th) TVNZ's Seven Sharp programme had an item featuring a Ponsonby-based psychic medium by the name of Kimberly Stewart. The story was based on the premise that because 2020 has been such a stressful year, that people have been seeking the services of psychics more. Business is booming! As is typical of these items, they offered a psychologist's opinion for balance.

HRV has had to pay out $400k for bad claims it made about its water filters. The interesting thing about this case, in my opinion, is that the fine was given because it was shown that HRV didn't have the evidence for its claims when it made them.

The prevailing scientific opinion on lie detector tests is that they don't work well enough to be relied on in courts as evidence - in fact, they're probably not even a good way of discerning the truth. Unfortunately a Christchurch based private detective is selling tests to couples as a way of finding out whether a partner has cheated.

Somebody asked Sandra Clair from Artemis, who writes for the Herald and sells natural remedies:

Up to 80 kids - 1 in 4 - at Brunswick North West Primary School in Melbourne have contracted chicken pox. The school is tolerant or even welcoming of parents who choose not to vaccinate their kids. Newsletters have reiterated this view:

It is difficult to know where to begin in response to Jim Ring's letter (NZ Skeptic 110), but somewhat reluctantly, here goes.

It's a great privilege to have known Eileen, her warmth, her wit and her sharp mind undimmed by her failing health. In the last few years, when she might forget the word for something, she knew what she wanted to say about it.

William of Malmesbury chronicled the reign of ill-fated William Rufus, the red-headed son of William The Conqueror who was shot, so 'tis said, in mistake for a squirrel. In the early part of the 12th Century, he expressed some scepticism concerning portents following the king's burial within the tower of Winchester Cathedral.