April Climate snippets

Patrick Medlicott - 28 April 2025

I intend this episode to comment on several issues.

1. Climate change and GDP.

2. Climate change and insurance.

3. The combined report from the Ministry of the environment and statistics New Zealand for 2025.

4. Glaciation in New Zealand.

1. Climate change and GDP

This is from the OECD (organisation for economic cooperation and development). The report I read is from the Guardian. The bottom line from this report is that one third of GDP will be lost this century if the climate crisis is unchecked. They state that tackling the climate crisis will increase economic growth. This is despite most politicians worldwide, particularly many of our politicians, telling us it is too expensive to deal with climate change.

2. Insurance and climate change

There are multiple reports and comments from senior people in the insurance industry that retreat from insurance cover for a considerable portion of people threatened by climate change or already suffering from climate change effects will probably no longer be insurable in the future. This has multiple knock-on effects for society and the economy in the future. If one is unable to insure property, then this affects their ability to get loans from banks, and will cascade into the financial system over the next generation. There is already retreat from insurance in fire prone areas in California, and significant discussion about the longer-term effects of sea level rise. This is one of the threats mentioned above.

3. The combined report from the Ministry of the environment and statistics New Zealand for 2025

Initially I listened to the Radio New Zealand morning report the morning of its release, and it was thought by the commentator that it was good news. I have since read the report and it appears there is one aspect of good news, being that the overall air quality in New Zealand has improved. It is uncertain of the causation for this, but it may be due to burning less fossil fuels (it is not often recognised that worldwide, especially in cities, millions of people die from the direct or indirect effect of air pollution).

There is, however, very significant bad news which was not mentioned. This was that 76% of freshwater fish, 68% of freshwater birds, 78% of terrestrial birds, 93% of frogs (probably including “Freddie” of Shane Jones fame) and 94% of reptiles are threatened or at risk of extinction in New Zealand. New Zealand is ahead of most nations in the biodiversity crisis, due to changes in land use, pollution, invasive species and climate change. It was also noted that there are major problems with E.Coli in groundwater in New Zealand because of animal (farming) and human (cities) pollution. One could say that we are shitting in our own nests. It also notes that there is a significant increase in nitrogen in our groundwater, most likely due to excessive fertiliser run-off. The other problem is the increasing incidence of pest species, particularly in our landscape of Wilding Pines (the use of pine plantations to absorb CO2 is one of this government’s ways of dealing with excess CO2). The Commissioner for the Environment, the Honourable Simon Upton, has very recently been casting significant doubt on this as a viable mechanism going forward.

The replanting of indigenous species is more likely to be beneficial in the longer term.

4. Glaciation in New Zealand

It was noted in Stuff, on the 12th of April 2025, that New Zealand’s Glaciers have lost the equivalent volume of one third of Lake Taupo in the last 20 years. The loss of glacial ice is occurring worldwide, and it leads to a shortage of water which of course is essential to life, and to economic life. 42% of New Zealand glacial ice has been lost over the above period. New Zealand is again a world leader in this issue. This will affect storage of water for electricity generation in the longer term. The deniers will of course say that glacial ice has fluctuated on the planet over many generations (Ice Ages), however from ice core samples from Antarctica and glaciers, it’s been found that the changes are more than has been seen in the last 800,000 years, which may give them food for thought.

To finish with a short note again from the Guardian (27/3/25)

The Federal emergency Management agency in the United States, otherwise known as FEMA, has developed a tool to predict future extreme weather. This agency and the tool have been deleted by the climate change denier in chief Donald Trump.

The tool however has been recreated by the climate change staff of the Guardian. It has been suggested that this type of tool should also be available for New Zealand conditions. I am not holding my breath.

Readers, if there are any of you that may feel I use climate change snippets from the Guardian too much and that it is biased towards the left, I acknowledge this, however I also belong to an organisation which studies media bias and reports monthly on where dozens of media organisations sit on the fact versus non-fact axis and on the left-right axis. The Guardian sits just slightly left of centre, but is well above the pack on the fact/non-fact axis. It is still significantly more reliable than any of the social media platforms which many people belong to.