NZ Skeptics Articles

Introducing our new Climate Correspondent

Patrick Medlicott - 21 January 2025

I have been a member of this group for a few years. I joined because I was tired of ill-informed, anti-scientific nonsense in our media especially stemming from our politicians. I am a 78 year old retired Orthopaedic Surgeon who has worked in science since my initial Zoology degree in 1967. I do not belong to any (anti)social media.

I adhere to the statement of the late Physicist/Philosopher Carl Sagan “You can have your own opinions, but you cannot have your own facts”. I’ve enjoyed your correspondents unravelling multi level marketing scams and religious cults and exposing their malign influence usually on the most vulnerable in our society. Magical thinking is everywhere, and used to control the masses even in mainstream religions as well as cults.

Recently I have tired of the emphasis on these in the weekly newsletters. They involve a small section of the population, probably 3-5%, whereas there are significant other existential threats affecting them as well as all of us - the major one being the Climate Emergency and its multiple causes. These I feel need more discussion in the newsletters.

I emailed Mark recently to this effect, and he offered me the opportunity to be the Climate Correspondent for the society. Accordingly, I am writing this initial piece for the members welcoming feedback and whether they feel this has merit. I am not a climate scientist, but have read extensively on this and have done two V.U.W. units there over the last two years for my own interest.

My Disclosures

Preamble

I have heard from several friends, as well as local body and national politicians, that they are “sceptical” about Anthropogenic climate change and its relationship to Greenhouse Gases. However, these people without exception are not scientists. Some years ago, it was stated that 95% of Climate scientists believed in Anthropogenic climate change from burning fossil fuels. It is now closer in 2024 to 99.5%. I think that is a serious majority (see the Carl Sagan quote above). That is probably about the closest one can get to a “Fact”.

The scientists who recognised this and brought it to the attention of their colleagues and bosses 50 years ago were those employed by Oil companies! This is not new!

Well, what is the situation at the end of 2024? To illustrate this, I will use a peer reviewed journal article from BioScience, published 8/10/24. This is a free article:

The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth

We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. For many years scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change, which is driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change (Ripple et al .2020). Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, the three hottest days ever occurred in July 2024 (Guterres 2024), and current policies have us on track for approximately 2.7°C Peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023).

We have now dropped the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relative numbers within our genus, Homo.

Human-caused carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases are the primary drivers of climate change. As of 2022, global fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes account for approximately 90 percent of these omissions, whereas land-use change, primarily deforestation, accounts for approximately 10%.

I would commend the members to review the article as it contains many graphs and other demonstrable examples, too many for an article of this size.

The conclusions of the report are damning.

Despite six IPCC reports, 28 COP meetings, hundreds of other reports, and tens of thousands of scientific papers, the world has made only very minor headway on climate change, in part because of stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel based system. We are currently going in the wrong direction, and are increasing fossil fuel consumption. Rising greenhouse gas emissions are driving us towards a climate catastrophe. We fear the danger of climate breakdown. The evidence we observe is both alarming and undeniable, but it is this very shock that drives us to action. We recognise the profound urgency of addressing this global challenge, especially the horrific outlook for the world’s poor. We feel the courage and determination to seek transformative science-based solutions across all aspects of society.

Rapidly phasing down fossil fuel use should be the top priority. This might be accomplished partly through a sufficiently high global carbon price that could restrain emissions by the wealthy while potentially providing funding for much-needed climate mitigation and adaptation programs. In addition, pricing and reducing methane emissions is critical for effectively mitigating climate change. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and unlike carbon dioxide, which persists in the atmosphere for centuries, methane has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime, making reductions impactful in the short term. Drastically cutting methane emissions can slow the near-term rate of global warming, helping to avoid tipping points and extreme climate impacts.

In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous illusion. We need bold, transformative change: drastically reducing over consumption and waste, especially by the affluent, stabilising and gradually reducing the human population through empowering education and rights for girls and women, reforming food production systems to support more plant-based eating and adopting an ecological and post-growth economic framework that ensures social justice. Climate change instruction should be integrated into secondary and higher education core curriculum worldwide to raise awareness, improve climate literacy, and empower learners to take action. We also need more immediate efforts to protect, restore, or re-wild ecosystems.

The surge in yearly climate disasters shows we are in a major crisis, with worse to come, yet we continue with business as usual. Today, more than ever, our actions matter for the stable climate system that has supported us for thousands of years. Humanity’s future depends on our creativity, moral fibre, and perseverance. We must urgently reduce ecological overshoot and pursue immediate large scale climate change mitigation and adaptation to limit near-term damage. Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, of the profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the liveable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance.

It is my opinion that the climate emergency is a fact. Climate change “scepticism” is no longer a viable position to hold as a scientist.

The changes needed to avert the problem are long past. Mitigation is possible but requires political will. Unfortunately, this is absent in New Zealand as our Westminster style parliamentary democracy and our addiction to neoliberal capitalism are incompatible with making the changes necessary. I have written previously on these points, and hope to share them in another article.

Our present government which is said to be bringing us back on track is proceeding in the opposite direction as far as the climate is concerned. The emphasis on growing a neoliberal capitalist GDP based on farming animals I believe is not viable in the 21st century. Instead of New Zealand showing the way to being a modern global example of a sustainable economy we are joining with the magical thinking deniers present in many parts of the world. Geo engineering has not been shown to be able to be developed at scale anywhere in the world. It is another example of magical thinking. Short of nuclear fusion there is no way to run on business as usual in our energy supply. This unfortunately is probably still generations away.

Renewable energy may allow us to live our high-energy lifestyles within the bounds of the liveable planet for our Mokopuna and my hope is that this will occur. The alternative is frightening.