The sources of Putin's ideas

Has Putin come under the Rasputin-like spell of some mystic philosopher(s)?

Is he mad, and totally out of touch with reality? Or…

Is he just a totalitarian thug and bully who miscalculated the strength of his army in the case of Ukraine?

Julian Walker, who spoke with Kim Hill on National Radio on 26 March, considers Aleksandr Dugin has a major influence on Putin. Dugin's 1997 book The Foundations of Geopolitics is taught in military academies in Russia. Walker said Dugin promotes extreme relativism to the point there is no such thing as absolute truth, except there is some divinely-ordained cycle of nationhood destinies. Walker, who has been a co-host on the podcast Conspiruality sees Dugin's ideas as a very dangerous blend of Stalinist communism, extreme nationalism and repressive Nazi ideas. He sees a connection with the alt-right movement and some yoga beliefs found in Western democracies in Dugin's ideas.

However, George Barros, a Washington-based analyst who concentrates on Ukraine and Russia, said two years ago, “Aleksander Dugin, as controversial and reprehensible as he is, is not the mastermind many in the West frequently and mistakenly make him out to be….He is no longer very influential and is…a useful idiot”, useful as an informal instrument of engagement with strategic foreign audiences, such as fringe, far-right leaders in the West.

And then we have Andrey Illarionov, an economist and former economic policy advisor to Vladimir Putin from April 2000 to December 2005. Speaking on the youtube Triggernometry channel, he describes Putin as “rational and calculating…not mad.” Illarionov says Putin “pretends to be mad, while the West pretends to be scared…” That fear, he says. can play into Putin's hand. Illarionov seems to think it is reasonably safe to call Putin's bluff, and for the West to present Putin with a greater show of force than at present.

Paul Kirby, however, writing in the BBC News last month suggests, if anyone does have Putin's ear more than most, it is long-time confidant Sergei Shoigu, "Shoigu is not only in charge of the military, he's also partly in charge of ideology - and in Russia ideology is mostly about history and he's in control of the narrative."

On Saturday, I attended the Ukrainian gathering in Wellington to protest Putin's war and show solidarity with Ukraine. There I met Alexei, one of a group of Russians living here who joined the protest. So I asked him for his take on all this.

Alexei told me,

“However, there is no evidence that Putin is significantly influenced by Dugin. Actually, it might be the opposite - Dugin raised under Putin. Originally, Dugin was quite a marginal fascist freak, but gained the popularity under Putin. In Russia there is no strong defined ideology still, so Dugin tried to invent it. However, it's too complex and contradictory for the majority, but, obviously, some elements are definitely used in Russian propaganda.

Regarding Putin itself - he was formed in the criminal surroundings of street thugs, and was lucky enough to get to the very top. His behaviour is highly influenced by the street. Yes, he said a few times that he was amused and inspired by the Russian philosopher Ivan Ilyin, but it's definitely not a systematic knowledge, however, the fascist ideas are likely to come from Ilyin, not Dugin. The implementation is as of a primitive bandit though, definitely not a philosopher.”