Climate change - opinions?

Do you believe in climate change? Based on my past readings of NZ Skeptic of course not. After all this is the skeptic's magazine.

I consider whether you believe in climate change is the wrong question. This particular letter is written because of my own interest in climate change, and my concerns about how I should conduct my own life as a result. Climate change is not about belief, though what we believe does affect our behaviour. Even climate sceptics accept the climate is changing, but question whether it is caused by human actions, and more explicitly excessive use of fossil fuels. Climate change is not some laboratory experiment with a highly controlled environment, but rather an immensely complex system influenced by chaos and the dreaded unknown unknowns. Climate change is unlikely to be proven one way or the other any time soon, but the case appears to be getting stronger and stronger. It is the trends over generations and millennia that count. Humanity has a poor record with long time frames. How long did plate tectonics or evolution take to be accepted? I consider climate change denial is no longer a valid position. So what should a good skeptic do about the climate and what behaviours should skeptics promote about climate change?

Read lots of course, make your own interpretations of the data, and build your own view without prejudice. Some of my reading has included the following:

Gareth Morgan and John McCrystal's Poles Apart: Beyond the shouting who's right about climate change. Fairly balanced and NZ local, but in the end inconclusive. It does suggest a probable link with human fossil fuel use and climate change. Morgan now warns about temperature rise of greater than two degrees and atmospheric CO2 exceeding of 400ppm.

James Lovelock, The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A final warning. Makes for grim reading on climate change, but concludes the earth will survive and be fine. Not so for humans. The ability of humanity to adapt to the change without war and widespread misery is his big challenge for readers and politicians. You may not believe in Gaia, but Lovelock was a respected scientist and writes well. Worth a look even to see what the other side says.

Richard Heinberg, The End of Growth. This author is from the green corner but has some good data and links to raw data you can use and adapt. I found his case compelling but check out the data for yourself. Check his presentation to a Tauranga audience at (especially pg 39-40) www.envirohub.org.nz/site/files/6213/4924/0211/Heinberg_Presentation.pdf

Some good raw material is available atwww.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends, also www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html, and cdiac.ornl.gov

I consider the climate change deniers are becoming increasingly marginalised. I hope skeptics can remain vigilant protectors of science, and point out when belief gets in the way of reason whatever our perspective. I'm interested in what reading others recommend on the subject.

Richard Hart

Tauranga