And I didn't even wish upon a star

1st May 2006

I had a dream. One of those ones which are slightly alarming in that they come true. In my dream a friend happily announced she was pregnant and when I chanced to bump into her the next day, she told me — excitedly — the good news.

Ah, thought I. That’s funny, I just dreamt she was gravid and now she is. I told her I knew already, and related my snippet of dream. I think she was impressed.

A few days later her good man rang up and we chatted away for a while, then he expressed mild amazement over my incredible abilities to see into the future. “So you must be having to reassess your sceptical position on this one then Annette?” he asked.

I thought for a bit and told him no, not at all. We humans are talented at spotting connections or patterns, even where no causal link exists. Of all the dreams I’ve had, this is the first one to come true, that I know of. And only one bit of it — I didn’t, for instance, tell my friends that seconds after relating their news in my dream, they both turned into penguins and waddled off to get ice cream. That bit didn’t come true. We are, I said, selective in what we choose to focus on and record only the hits, or bits of them. The misses go right out the window.

That I should dream my friend was pregnant is not at all surprising. I knew she was keen on the idea of another child, my mind whipped this up with a penguin or two and the timing was spot on. What is more, out of the three years I’ve known her, she has already been pregnant for a quarter of that time, with her first child. So the idea of her being pregnant is hardly a strange one.

I’ve long been aware that people have what they regard as prophetic dreams, and have never considered that they required a supernatural explanation. There’s no reason for me to change my view just because I’ve experienced the phenomenon myself.

I probably should have mentioned William of Occam and his razor. Or how, when you hear hoof beats in the night, don’t think zebras, instead wonder — with some justification — what that cat is bringing in to the house now.

Anyway, it’s late and I need to turn in. To sleep, perchance to dream, possibly of winning Lotto numbers or, more likely, of penguins.

Annette Taylor

A very merry unbirthday

Bernard Howard - 1 May 2006

"There are three hundred and sixty-four days when you might get un-birthday presents and only one for birthday presents, you know."

Forum

1 May 2006

Keith Garratt's critique of genealogy (New Zealand Skeptic 77) is a strange mix of arguments. He purports to be addressing genealogy "as normally practised" or "as often practised" but offers no evidence that this is the way that things are actually done. He also identifies a "traditional approach," a term which is used, however, almost interchangeably with the others. He presents no evidence as to the prevalence of these approaches amongst genealogists and most of his examples of misuses of genealogy, such as Dan Brown's bestselling novel The Da Vinci Code, are not drawn from the genealogical literature. A review of the contents of the volumes of the bi-monthly New Zealand Genealogist for 2004 and 2005, as an example, contradicts most of his claims about what represents usual practice. Ordinary claims require ordinary evidence, at least, but little is provided.

Snake Oil: a brief history of alternative medicine

David Cole - 1 May 2006

Snake Oil: a brief history of alternative medicine

Early in 2005 Professor Kaye Ibbertson, the relentless grand vizier of the Marion Davis Library and Museum, asked David Cole to offer the Medical Historical Society some comments about the history of unorthodox medicine. He was in the process of assembling several convincing excuses, when Ibbertson turned off his hearing aid and any excuses were set aside. This article is based on the talk which resulted.

Newsfront

Annette Taylor - 1 May 2006

Nessie's an elephant, says a leading British palaeontologist (Dominion Post, 7 March).

"Voodoo vets" create a stir

1 May 2006

A website poking fun at veterinary homeopathy has become the unlikely symbol of a global backlash by conventional vets against their homeopathic colleagues, according to New Scientist magazine. The "British Veterinary Voodoo Society" (BVVS) is a parody, but its creators say they are making a serious point: that the claimed effectiveness of homeopathic veterinary medicine has no more solid scientific evidence behind it than voodoo. They object to a decision by the UK's Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons (RCVS) to publish an official list of homeopathic vets, which they say undermines the credibility of conventional veterinary medicine.

Skeptical Podcasts

1 May 2006

Skepticality is a hugely entertaining podcast that explores rational thought, critical thinking, science and the de-bunking of the supernatural and pseudo-science. It features interviews with favourite skeptics such as James Randi and Tom Flynn, as well as scientists, such as Phil Plait and Michael Shermer. The podcast also features general discussion of all things sceptical with its two intelligent hosts Swoopy and Derek.