New Truth's Whitianga whittler has cloudy memory

The New Truth articles on the "Disappearing Regiment" were examined in New Zealand Skeptic No. 15. A curious sequel to these stories, headed "Mystery clouds hold secret to rail horror!", appeared in New Truth's issue of 20 October 1989. After reading the "Disappearing Regiment" articles (25 August and 1 September 1989), Mr Jack Bramley, a wood carver now living in Whitianga, told New Truth of three clouds he had seen from Taupo and which had remained in the same position near Mt Ruapehu for the three days before Christmas 1953. In the article the clouds were linked to the disaster which occurred when the Wellington-Auckland express was plunged into the Whangaehu River shortly before 10.30 pm on 24 December 1953.

"During the last three days the sky was completely clear except for three flattish oval clouds which lay alongside the crater lake on Mt Ruapehu.

"The mountain stood out clearly and these clouds sat unmoving for three days.

"Although I recall calling attention to them, to intimate hanky panky with the lake would be to invite ridicule.

"But it was the night of the third day that the crater lake overflowed causing the tragedy of the Tangiwai."

Most people would probably have dismissed the story as preposterous. For the benefit of those who didn't, two matters could have been investigated by New Truth, but were not.1

Clear Skies?

The 1953/54 Royal Visit began at Auckland in the mid-morning of 23 December. There is plenty of photographic and journalistic evidence that it was wet in Auck-

New Truth's Whitianga whittler has cloudy memory land that day. I recall that day in Napier listening to a broadcast of the Queen's arrival, and the similar weather we were having. Reading New Truth's story it seemed to me unlikely the central North Island could have enjoyed clear skies from 22 to 24 December.

The weather forecasts in The Dominion for the lower North Island districts generally indicated damp weather for the period 22-24 December. The New Zealand Herald's forecasts for "all districts" of the upper North Island (including Rotorua-Taupo) were also wet, with an improvement forecast for 24 December.

Knowing weather forecasts can be wrong, I checked with the New Zealand Meteorological Service for some relevant weather details. Information supplied from the Taupo and Chateau weather stations show the skies were "partly cloudy" or "cloudy" on those dates. No data for sunshine hours were recorded at the Chateau, but on 24 December there was the comment "rain turning to drizzle".

The cause of the Tangiwai Disaster

There is no great mystery about the cause of the disaster. Early on there was apparently the suggestion that a cloudburst was responsible. Given it was a sudden flooding of a river which required an explanation, the suggestion was understandable. However, it was almost immediately quashed. (See New Zealand Herald 26 December 1953, page 1). New Truth said its predecessor Truth never accepted the cloudburst theory, as if that theory at the time of its 30 December 1953 cover story, or even now, could be seriously entertained. The daily press was linking the disaster to water from Mt Ruapehu's crater lake at least as early as 28 December 1953—see The Dominion of that date. (There were no papers on 27 December, a Sunday.)

However, Mr Bramley's claim that the crater lake overflowed is mistaken. The evidence presented at the Board of Inquiry was that the disaster was caused by a sudden escape of water from the Mt Ruapehu's crater Jake, the result of the collapse of a barrier to an ice cave on the volcano through which the water in the lake drained into the Whangaehu River. Erosion by water seeping through this barrier of volcanic ash and scoria is believed to have reduced the barrier's strength and "cracking movements in the ice above may have caused it to collapse suddenly"?

32km downstream, the flood, with added force from its high content of silt and rocks, partly demolished the railway bridge and weakened much of the rest of the Structure.

Similar "lahars" had happened at least two times before: in 1859 and 1923.3 There is no suggestion of clouds being involved in these earlier occurrences which, although they involved no loss of life, demolished or damaged bridges. (With due respect to Mr Bramley, there have also been lahars caused by the eruption of water from the crater lake.)

The Stuff of Memories

Reading old newspaper accounts of the disaster gave me direct experience of the ways memory can operate.

Although I was 6 years old when I saw it, I have never forgotten the artist's impression in The Dominion reproduced here. While I remember being disturbed by it and my recollection was in some respects quite accurate I find the actual picture more horrifying than the image retained for over 36 years. Another result of my research was the recollection of things which had once impressed a young boy, but nonetheless forgotten—the stories of whole families being killed; the informal visit of the Queen, unannounced to the public, to some of the survivors at a suburban home in Auckland.

Thad initially wanted just to check the pre-Christmas weather forecasts, but fascination compelled me to read on through the microfilm of the New Zealand Herald at the Auckland Public Library. However, it seemed a stranger force was at work when my eyes came across this item on page 7 of the issue of 28 December.

Strange Cloud Form Observed

(P.A.) TAIHAPE. Sunday A cloud looming over Tangiwai at the time of Thursday's disaster was of strange formation, clearly resembling the form of a lion ready to spring. This cloud shape stood boldly in an otherwise lightly clouded sky, according to several people who have reported the phenomenon.

It raises some probably now unanswerable questions: Where was the cloud viewed from?; How long was it visible?; Did the witnesses report the phenomenon because they thought it had some possibly significant connection with the disaster?; What is meant by "lightly clouded sky" and how does this relate to the weather reports noted above?

What is clear is that the report makes no mention of the most remarkable aspect of Mr Bramley's story—the clouds unchanging for three days or any other notable period of time. It is also difficult to understand how what was perceived somewhere in the central North Island as a lion about to spring, could have been seen as "three flattish oval clouds" from Taupo.

I am confident, however, the lion was connected with New Truth's story. The paper's articles about a cloud abducting a regiment (which also involved multiple, persistent clouds all of the same shape) has merely prompted a somewhat similar tale based on inaccurate recall. To give it a bit of "oomph", New Truth added a gratuitous and general reference to UFOs seen apparently siphoning water from lakes. (Whether the UFOs were refuelling, conducting experiments, or simply up to no good, New Truth did not speculate.)

Notes

1. The author, Edward Rooney, who gave us the disappearing regiment stories, said 166 people were killed in the disaster. This figure was probably derived from the Truth story of 30/12/53, reproduced, in part, as an illustration for his new story. While the death toll was initially thought to be that high, it was actually 151. Mr Rooney's research has been minimal.
2. Conly, Geoff Tragedy on the Track, Grantham House, 1986, p40. He is quoting Mr James Healy, Superintending Geologist of the Government Geological Survey, at the 1954 Board of Inquiry
3. Conly: ibid.; p62. Curiously, in a quotation on page 42, Mr James Healy, at the 1954 Board of Inquiry gave the dates as 1861 and 1925. Conly does not comment on this discrepancy.

More faulty recall

The recollections by alleged eyewitnesses of things seen long in the past are regularly encountered in connection with paranormal claims. The recent revival of the Roswell

(crashed UFO) Incident is a case in point. The Tangiwai Clouds is not the only recent report in New Zealand of a long term "vivid" memory about which one can properly be highly sceptical. And papers more reputable than New Truth propagate them uncritically.

Light in the darkness

Warren Barton in the Dominion Sunday Times of 18 June 1989, in a story "Survivors remember horror of Tangiwai", reported the account of the driver of a goods train waiting at Karioi, north of the river, for the express to pass.

"He learned about the tragedy from the way station attendant, loaded up his train and chuffed off down to the bridge. 'll never forget it. Carriages under the water with the lights still burning'".

Basic research would have revealed most of the following:

1) Six carriages went into the river. Two of them were left relatively intact—the first and sixth carriages to fall. The sixth was partly suspended over the end of what was left of the bridge before the supporting pier gave way. There is ample evidence from survivors that the lights failed shortly before, or after, the carriage toppled into the river. So there could only have been, at most, one carriage with its lights still on.

2) The huge quantity of silt in the flood was one of its remarkable features, and the flood was classified as a "'lahar", normally defined as a mudflow. It seems to me unlikely to have been particularly, if at all, translucent.

3) The flood passed very quickly—within 10-15 minutes according to James Healy, the geologist who figured most prominently at the Board of Inquiry.1 Would that give time for the news to reach Karioi, the goods train to be loaded and then "chuff" the 4 km to the river and allow the driver to see any submerged carriages?

4) Contemporary reports appear to make no mention of submerged lights.

The carriages underwater with the lights still burning is a compelling image; one which many Dominion Sunday

Times readers may still have (perhaps along with the thought of what wonderfully robust lighting systems New Zealand Railways employ). However, it seems to be a false one.

A flight of fancy

The recollections of George Bums of Lower Hutt were reported in The Evening Post of 10 April 1990. On 10 January 1928 the eight-year old George Burns was one of 10-12,000 people who gathered at Trentham racecourse to welcome the aviators Moncrieff and Hood at the end of what they expected would be the first flight across the Tasman Sea.

According to the Post's report "the picture of the plane's red-hot engine and a lightbulb in the cabin has been etched in his memory". Perched on his father's shoulders "he saw the plane coming towards them at a very low altitude".

The trouble is, despite the extensive coverage in the press of the aftermath to the ill-fated flight, no-one else was ever reported as seeing the plane at such close quarters. And while there were a number of reports of the plane being seen or heard from people all around New Zealand, none were from the expectant crowd at Trentham. The other alleged sightings are intriguing, often inconsistent and possibly an instance of the contagion effect, of which the 1909 airship flap (see page 9) may also be an example. The accepted view is: "It would seem that Moncrieff and Hood never sighted the New Zealand coast—that they were forced down into the sea from 300 to 500 miles from their goal".2

According to Mr Burns, however, the plane never landed because someone bungled the lighting of the flares to guide it in: "Mr Burns' father and the other men who had seen the plane refused to talk about the (bungler's) actions or the discussions that took place afterward, or let him talk about it...for reasons he doesn't want discussed".

Why did the Post devote 336cm2 (including photograph) to this story? The recent visit of the replica of the first plane known to have crossed the Tasman gave it some topicality. It may have reminded us that aviation progress was once a risky thing, and revived memories of a sad, if largely forgotten, episode in the country's past. It is because the story is largely forgotten that The Evening Post's lack of criticism of Burns' recollection was particularly remiss. It will hearten those who like to think the history books are all wrong.

For his own peace of mind Mr Burns says he wants to find the wreckage of Moncrieff and Hood's plane which he believes is in the vicinity of Upper Hutt. He has searched for it but "it is a very difficult task and his main hope now is that a clairvoyant could give an indication where it might be".

One hopes he gives a wide berth to Mrs Irene Dankbaar, the Dutch-Australian psychic who in 1987 "found" the Colossus of Rhodes.

Notes

1. Conly, Geoff Tragedy on the Track, Grantham House, 1986 p42.
2. Tillett, Leslie Wings Across the Tasman, AH. & A.W. Reed, 1953, p30.