Commonsense shaken

There were some strange responses to New Zealand's first big earthquake prediction.

On 10 February the public notices columns of The Dominion contained the following advertisement:

SAN DOMARAHE INSTITUTE

NELSON

Will there be an earthquake on 19th February or is Someone having another dig?

Box 270

Nelson

It passed apparently unremarked until 20 February when The Dominion related the notice to an earthquake which that previous night had caused widespread damage in Dannevirke. Before long the news was out that the earthquake had been predicted by Dr Thomas Baker, a then Nelson-based homeopath.

Given the acclaim Dr Baker was accorded, his actual "prediction" is worth a second look. You will see the prediction doesn't say, as one might expect of a prediction, "There will be an earthquake on...". It is instead expressed very guardedly—as a question and with what can only be called a cryptic cop-out clause. In the latter, the words "another dig" suggests similar predictions may have been made in the past and, no earthquake having occurred, then passed off as a joke. However, in fairness, I must record I am unaware of people having noticed other earthquake predictions Dr Baker might have published.

More importantly, the notice did not specify where the earthquake would happen nor comment on its severity, details one would expect of a bona fide prediction. There could be earthquakes somewhere in the world of varying degrees of severity every quarter hour. Generously, one could grant that publication of the "prediction" in The Dominion indicated the earthquake would affect Wellington at least.

It was later revealed Dr Baker had warned his friends a serious earthquake would strike the Nelson-Wellington area. The 19th February earthquake, rated 6 on the Richter scale, was indeed felt in Nelson and Wellington, but these were near the southern limits of the area over which it was felt. The epicentre was 160 km and 275 km distant from Wellington and Nelson, respectively. It was not a serious earthquake in those places.

Despite all these possible reservations, Dr Baker was widely regarded as having made a successful prediction.

Astonishingly, the doctor then made a bona fide prediction. The Nelson Evening Mail of 22 February reported that Dr Baker had predicted an earthquake rating 8 on the Richter scale would strike Lower Hutt at 1 a.m. on 10 March. It would be felt as far north as Masterton and as far south as Nelson and Blenheim. After having apparently partial success with a dubious prediction the seer was being ultra-specific.

As it turned out, nothing occurred which could be represented as even a partial fulfillment of the second prediction.

The reaction

It was a good story for the news media. As I don't watch television or listen to the radio, I can only comment on the reaction of the press. Following the example of The Nelson Evening Mail, papers as far away as Dunedin featured the bona fide prediction on their front page. However, in Wellington, the supposed epicentre of the quake, they seemed to have ignored it completely until almost a fortnight later when The Evening Post (7/3/90) reported the civil defence authorities were fielding many calls about the predicted disaster. This seemed like commendable restraint. However, the editor of The Dominion has advised that his paper did run a story on the prediction in its first edition of 21 February but it was subsequently displaced by other new stories.

Thereafter the Wellington papers published a number of reports relating to the supposedly impending disaster. In these, scientists were quoted throwing doubt on the validity of the prediction. Even the Minister of the DSIR, Clive Matthewson, himself a former earthquake engineer, pooh-poohed it (Post 9/3).

Dr Warwick Smith, Director of the DSIR's Seismological Observatory was frequently the source of sane comment. He described Dr Baker's "successful" prediction as coincidence in the very first news report of it. His later comments suggest he doubted Baker understood the magnitude of an earthquake measuring 8 on the Richter scale—it would be worse than the 1931 earthquake which devastated the Napier and Hastings business areas, and would be felt over the whole country. He was also concerned about the potential social harm of such predictions. "Imagine what would happen in Wellington if people believed it. You could get people jamming the roads—there could be disaster on the highways".

In other items a different approach was taken. The Dominion (8/3) took the initiative of consulting The Wizard of Christchurch, who, apparently aping Dr Baker, "lent his ear to the Christchurch ether in search of ominous vibrations. 'Nothing at all', he said. 'It is quite clear there will not be an earthquake.' "

A scathing column by journalist David Cohen appeared in The Evening Post (9/3). It made the telling point: "How can someone with no knowledge of the workings of (the) Richter scale possibly understand the exact magnitude of a quake?"

The public reaction as it turned out was not drastic. There were even reports of people holding earthquake parties into the wee small hours of 10 March. The less lighthearted took up a lot of the time of public officials by phone calls to Dr Smith, and to the Lower Hutt, Masterton, Palmerston North and Wellington Regional Council civil defence authorities. The Dominion reported that items such as torches, matches and candles were in high demand at Lower Hutt supermarkets. There were similar reports from Palmerston North.

Alan Bridle, Regional Council Civil Defence Manager said:

"(Dr Baker] has done us an immeasurable service to get the level of preparedness up. That's often difficult to achieve without putting the frighteners on people" (Post 8/3).

(Wellington Free Ambulance, although it told its staff there was no scientific basis for the prediction, required that all ambulances be road-worthy by 8 March.)

Bridle is also reported as having said:

"Civil Defence regularly receives calls from people saying an earthquake was going to happen at a particular time and they could not be dismissed as cranks. [Why not? —

P.A.B.] Somebody sooner or later could be right. If we over-react we lose a lot of credibility in the public eye. Equally we lose credibility if we are not prepared" (Post 7/3). [Surely, constant preparedness would enable CD to ignore predictions, cranky or otherwise. —P.A.B.]

In contrast, the National Director of Civil Defence, Ed Latter, said no action was being taken on Dr Baker's prediction. CD only issued wamings if there was a clearly known tisk. Later, he called for an end to irresponsible predictions of earthquakes. "There is no doubt that many people—particularly the young and the elderly—were extremely concerned by the forecast of such a natural disaster" (Post 17/3).

The New Zealand Skeptics had their say. Our Media Spokesperson and survivor of many Californian earthquake predictions, Denis Dutton, appeared on The Holmes Show. Denis offered to donate $5,000 to charity if the earthquake prediction proved correct, provided Dr Baker agreed to donate $500 if it didn't. Dr Baker was lucky—according toa report in The Evening Post he couldn't be located and the wager never happened.

The Method

I was sympathetic to Dr Baker. There is plenty of evidence, admittedly anecdotal, that animals can detect earthquakes. My mother's family lived on a sheep station northwest of Gisborne and always claimed the pheasants shrieked before an earthquake and that the shrieking before the 1931 Napier earthquake was especially notable.! Why then could not some people have a similar sensitivity? No doubt years of careful observation and recording would be necessary for predictions to be made. Although these days a human being more sensitive than the latest technology is almost unthinkable, perhaps Dr Baker's first "prediction" had been occasioned by his sensing the beginning of the strong foreshocks to the Hanmer Springs quake recorded by the DSIR at 6.29am on 10 February—the deadline for his advertisement in The Dominion would have been only 5pm the day before.

However, the references in the papers to Dr Baker's "method" soon dispelled my optimism.

• Dr Baker uses a combination of feeling the earth and listening for vibrations (Post 7/3).
• He likened his method of predicting earthquakes in some way to how dolphins communicate with echo sounds (Nelson Evg Mail 22/2).
• He knew the earthquake was going to happen because "T sat down and definitely felt that vibration" [The seat-ofthe-pants method?] (Mail 21/2).
• He had had a "retune in" on Tuesday night and yesterday what he felt disturbed him so much that he decided he had to speak out (Mail 22/2).
• Dr Baker said he had been picking up aftershocks from the Dannevirke quake but had felt something different [Dr Smith of the D.S.LR. said seismological equipment was registering only "very, very small" aftershocks from that earthquake] (Mail 22/2).
• He said predicting earthquakes "can be done, it is done and people were doing it all the time before this century" (Mail 21/2).
• "You can learn it, but it's not put out on television" (Mail 21/2).
• He said homeopathic medicine had a particular essence which was similar to the sensitivity he picked up from the earth (Dom 22/2).

Perhaps this is just inadequate reporting by the news media.

The Doctor

Thomas Baker was originally from Southland. He completed his medical studies at Otago University in 1981. The birth of his first child while he was a general practitioner in Thames led to an interest in homeopathy. He studied the subject in London. In 1987, when he was practising in Wellington, he was reported to be one of three medically qualified homeopaths in New Zealand.

He had a "blues musical" called "Thomas Baker and the Conductor's Shoes" produced as a late-night show at Wellington's Circa Theatre. The preview in The Evening Post (17/6/87) said the show was

"...a protest against the 'imposed rhythm' of medical training and family life. It explores human emotion. The performing arts like his homeopathy involve the use of sound. He says he uses sound a lot."

"Dr Baker says he is a clairvoyant and can see people's auras. Through the use of sound and music he can balance people's energies, he said."

Baker later moved to Nelson. Shortly before the earthquake predicted for that city he left for Otago. (He said the move was unrelated to the expected quake.) He intends to live in Dunedin and work on performing a type of opera aimed at reaching the spontaneous side of people and enthusing them. He does not intend to begin a medical practice (apparently, not even a homeopathic one—see page 15).

Notes.

1. A letter in New Scientist 5/5/90 refers to pheasants giving their alarm call a short time before the sonic booms of Concorde.

What the doctor ordered

To obtain information on the San Domarhe Institute Celia Lund wrote to that body. Celia has received two communications, the second of which is reproduced below. While the circular is unsigned, its envelope was addressed in the same hand as the first communication, a personal letter written, signed and addressed by Dr Baker.

10 May 1990

P.O. Box 138, Wanaka.

Dear Folks,

Finally I get around to writing to you after much exploring and research.

The earth energy has changed, its magnetic energy has increased its frequency.

It makes living well in these times a little more difficult because it places stress on the biochemic system.

Silica tablets are a must for everybody because they protect the glands of the body responsible for regulation of bodily function. They also help eliminate toxins from the body. 2 per day would be adequate. The other mineral of importance js Zinc. Zinc helps digestion and metabolism otherwise stressed by magnetic energy.

Peoples emotions will generally tend to be more up and down.

Rational decisions will take more time and care to make.

Zinc 2 - 4 per day. -

Finally it is best that everybody:-

• Do a little exercise z
• Drink more water, (preferably water that has stood in a blue container for 24 hours).
• Practice an art form or aspiration daily.
• Beware to keep in company rather than isolation
• These things keep the body aligned

Homeopathy

Be aware that it is much harder to use homeopathy and herbs to cure which is one reason I ceased practising.

Be also aware that the sun has magnetic rays that combining with earth magnetism can make thoughts a little more confusing.

This magnetic change is permanent, it will affect the climate and water availability. In 2 years we could see some dramatic changes.

Thave published a book called "The Art of Being Well", which is a treatise more on spiritual health than physical health, but it would be useful for everyone, particularly on the subject of intuition.

Your greatest problem will be to stay patient.

'Yours sincerely,

Thomas J. Baker